If the current midterm margins hold steady at a 56-44 split between Democrats and Republicans, the path for GOP control of the Senate in 2028 looks incredibly steep. To reach a 50-50 tie, the party would have to flip six seats held by Democrats while keeping every single vulnerable Republican seat safe. That specific math requires winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire all at once. Even pulling off that impossible feat isn't enough on its own; securing the presidency becomes a mandatory requirement just to break the potential Senate tie. Writers Lynn and Michael conclude that Republicans appear unlikely to succeed in the near term under these conditions.