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The last time Bloomberg's Agriculture Spot Index moved like this, the Arab Spring and food riots were still recent memory. That index tracks ten major products, and it surged more than 13%. August delivered the steepest one-month climb in crop prices since 2012, which means global food inflation is no longer creeping, it's accelerating. The striking part is that nothing in the basket held still. Sugar jumped 11.9% in August. Wheat added 2.6% on the month and 15% across twelve months, sitting near a three-year high. The World Food Price Index rose 1.9%, its highest mark since December 2022, and overall food prices are up 7.4% since January. The forces behind it aren't letting up either. Black Sea shipments remain disrupted. Russia and Ukraine still supply a significant portion of the world's wheat. El Niño is dragging down sugar and cocoa output. And energy plus fertilizer costs tied to the broader war picture are already baked into what the next harvest will cost, not only this one. Soft numbers on a screen become hard numbers at the register. When wheat, sugar, and oil move together, groceries don't wait for a central bank meeting. Source: KobeissiLetter / Writer: Val
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