Jolyon@jolyon

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Tim Miller Brandon J Weichert Houthis analysis

Washington cancelled the planned strike on Houthis this weekend even after Strike aircraft and crews were fully prepared. Riyadh agreed to participate only after previously refusing twice, with equipment ready before the cancellation order arrived from Washington. Tim Miller from The Bulwark interprets this reversal as a result of competing pressures rather than a single cause. Factors favoring the operation included Saudi diplomatic ties and concerns over oil prices, while opposing factors involved reported munitions shortages and the risk of a prolonged conflict that would drag on. Miller warns that without a mass-casualty event occurring first, pressure to conduct strikes will likely increase in late November or December when the window for action shifts. Recent diplomatic developments show Gulf partnerships weakening, including new defense pacts between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Meanwhile Beijing is reportedly gaining allies through diplomacy rather than military action, contrasting with the current situation. #BrandonJWeichert

2h

Jolyon@jolyon

关注

Tim Miller Brandon J Weichert Houthis analysis

Washington cancelled the planned strike on Houthis this weekend even after Strike aircraft and crews were fully prepared. Riyadh agreed to participate only after previously refusing twice, with equipment ready before the cancellation order arrived from Washington. Tim Miller from The Bulwark interprets this reversal as a result of competing pressures rather than a single cause. Factors favoring the operation included Saudi diplomatic ties and concerns over oil prices, while opposing factors involved reported munitions shortages and the risk of a prolonged conflict that would drag on. Miller warns that without a mass-casualty event occurring first, pressure to conduct strikes will likely increase in late November or December when the window for action shifts. Recent diplomatic developments show Gulf partnerships weakening, including new defense pacts between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Meanwhile Beijing is reportedly gaining allies through diplomacy rather than military action, contrasting with the current situation. #BrandonJWeichert

2h