Sam Altman on AI demand and compute scarcity
作者 Evira: Sam Altman
AI inference demand might grow 10x a year for the next several years, and that could make compute scarcity the norm. Internal YC estimates suggest the demand could be 90,000x, though sustaining that kind of growth for many consecutive years seems unlikely. The world just keeps finding more and better uses for intelligence, so the appetite feels effectively unlimited #SamAltman
文字记录 (en)
Separately, I would guess the worldwide demand for inference kind of subjectively grows 10x a year for the next many years. I mean, it might be, I don't know, by our accounts internal to YC, it's like might be 90,000x. I mean, it's going to be one of the wildest. I don't think the world can support that many years of a thousandx in a row. I mean, the capacity, I guess it's just, it's a function of how much bigger your ambitions are for intelligence and how, you know, If you do a lot more, I think we will sort of never be out of the compute shortage. I've never seen any commodity quite like this one, but it seems to me like the demand for sufficiently high quality intelligence at a sufficiently low price is effectively uncapped. It reminds me of some of those quotes from the early computing revolution, when people would say like, you know, no one needs more than 640k of RAM or whatever in their their computer. Turns out you do. We just keep thinking of like more and better stuff and I think that's going to happen.
