Jeremy Grantham

杰里米·格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）是一位英国投资者，也是GMO LLC（一家总部位于波士顿的资产管理公司）的联合创始人兼首席投资策略师。他于20世纪70年代初创立了世界上最早的指数基金之一。在他的指导下，GMO的管理资产在2015年3月达到1180亿美元的峰值。格兰瑟姆被广泛认为是市场泡沫的杰出历史学家，准确预测了2000年的互联网泡沫破灭和2008年的全球金融危机。他因频繁警告市场估值过高而被誉为“永久性看跌者”（permabear）。2011年，《彭博市场》（Bloomberg Markets）杂志将其列入“50位最具影响力人物”榜单。除了投资，他还是一个积极的环境慈善家，通过他与妻子于1997年创立的格兰瑟姆环境保护基金（Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment）捐赠了数百万美元。[编辑]

格兰瑟姆于1938年出生在英格兰赫特福德郡，在约克郡唐卡斯特长大。第二次世界大战期间，他由贵格会（Quaker）的祖父母抚养长大。他后来描述了战争时期的经历：停电、物资短缺以及不浪费任何东西的必要性。这段时期塑造了他避免高估值和浪费的投资理念。他对数学和经济学表现出早期兴趣，于1961年获得谢菲尔德大学（University of Sheffield）经济学学士学位。在为荷兰皇家壳牌（Royal Dutch Shell）短暂担任经济学家后，他移居美国，并于1966年获得哈佛商学院（Harvard Business School）MBA学位。在哈佛，他得到了价值投资之父本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）和大卫·多德（David Dodd）的指导，吸收了耐心和纪律的原则。[编辑]

1969年，格兰瑟姆联合创立了位于波士顿的Batterymarch Financial Management。两年后，他推荐了商业指数化，成为最早向机构投资者提出指数基金概念的人之一。1977年，他与理查德·梅奥（Richard Mayo）和埃克·范·奥特卢（Eyk van Otterloo）共同创立了GMO。该公司发展到2015年3月管理着超过1180亿美元的资产。格兰瑟姆因其准确的市场预测而闻名：2000年，他在GMO的季度通讯中警告了科技泡沫；2007年，他发表了《无处不在，万物皆有：第一个真正的全球泡沫》（It's Everywhere, In Everything: The First Truly Global Bubble），预测了房地产泡沫的破裂。2025年，他与爱德华·钱德勒（Edward Chancellor）合著了《永久性看跌者的诞生》（The Making of a Permabear）。截至2026年3月，GMO管理的资产约1000亿美元。格兰瑟姆继续担任长期投资策略师，并警告存在人工智能泡沫，将其与铁路和互联网泡沫相提并论。[编辑]

格兰瑟姆被称为“永久性看跌者”（permabear），是一位结构性悲观主义者，他经常警告市场估值过高。他因其长期、价值导向的投资理念以及准确预测重大金融崩溃的往绩而受到尊敬。媒体将他描绘成市场上最杰出的泡沫历史学家之一，经常被《福布斯》（Forbes）、《巴伦周刊》（Barron's）和《商业周刊》（Business Week）引用。他通过GMO的季度通讯、学术风格的白皮书和偶尔的媒体采访来表达自己的观点。他的写作风格分析性强、数据驱动，并且在谈到市场风险和环境挑战时，语气常常带有末日论调。机构投资者、价值投资爱好者和环保慈善家都在关注他。[编辑]

Jeremy Grantham commands a reputation defined not by celebrity adulation but by the weight of his prophetic financial warnings. His audience consists of institutional investors, value-oriented strategists, and economists who study his quarterly letters as primary source material for understanding market cycles. Unlike pop culture icons, he has no organized fanbase with rituals, merchandise, or collective campaigns; his engagement remains strictly professional through investment publications and media interviews regarding economic strategy. The cultural mythology surrounding him is built on verified historical accuracy rather than fandom fervor. He is widely cited as one of the few investors who successfully predicted major market crashes before they occurred, earning a legendary status among those focused on mean reversion strategies. Recent lore from mid-2026 reinforces this standing, highlighting his stark warnings that the U.S. stock market reached its most expensive point in American history and his prediction of a potential 70% catastrophe. His skepticism toward high-flying tech companies and dire environmental forecasts further cement his image as a grim, serious thinker prioritizing long-term survival over short-term gains. These narratives are retold within financial communities as cautionary tales of his foresight. Despite this significant influence, iFANN's Global Fame Engine has evaluated Jeremy Grantham, but he does not currently hold a placement in the published rankings. He is not ranked in the Global Top 1,000 nor does he appear on any Top-100 scope list. There is no documented fandom name associated with his supporters.[编辑]

Grantham grew up during World War II, where the experience of rationing and scarcity profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. He launched one of the world's first index funds in the early 1970s. Despite his vocal environmental activism, GMO remained heavily invested in oil and gas as of 2013; he told The Guardian: 'We need oil. If we took oil away tomorrow, civilization ends.' His environmental awakening came after a vacation to the Amazon and Borneo in the 1990s, where he was struck by rampant deforestation. He has noted that when he was born, the global population was 2.2 billion; it is now 8.3-8.4 billion. He also stated that 96% of all mammal life today is humans and their pets, with only 4% being wild animals. A modern legend in financial circles involves his June and July 2026 warnings that the U.S. stock market was at its most expensive in American history, predicting a potential 70% collapse. In July 2026, he famously remarked that it would be amazing if SpaceX did not collapse, labeling its valuation crazy. Another enduring story from August 2026 features his declaration that our species will be out of business in 50-60 years due to climate change and resource depletion.[编辑]

格兰瑟姆在第二次世界大战期间由他的贵格会祖父母抚养长大。他的父亲是一名商务主管，母亲是家庭主妇。他与汉内洛尔·格兰瑟姆（Hannelore Grantham）结婚，两人于1997年共同创立了格兰瑟姆环境保护基金。他们结婚数十年，但具体年份未公开。关于子女的信息未公开披露。[编辑]

格兰瑟姆与理查德·梅奥（Richard Mayo）和埃克·范·奥特卢（Eyk van Otterloo）共同创立了GMO。他在哈佛商学院期间得到了本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）和大卫·多德（David Dodd）的指导。他与爱德华·钱德勒（Edward Chancellor）合著了《永久性看跌者的诞生》（The Making of a Permabear）。他与本·因克（Ben Inker）和詹姆斯·蒙蒂尔（James Montier）一同在GMO的资产配置团队工作。[编辑]

杰里米·格兰瑟姆与汉内洛尔·格兰瑟姆结婚。他们结婚数十年，但确切年份未公开。他们于 1997 年共同创立了格兰瑟姆环境保护基金。其他公开的恋爱关系未在可靠来源中记载。截至 2026 年，格兰瑟姆仍与汉内洛尔结婚。[编辑]

Jeremy Grantham's net worth in 2026 is estimated at $300 Million per iFANN's editorial analysis. His primary wealth source is his co-founder stake in GMO, which managed approximately $100 billion in assets as of 2026. GMO's annual revenue is estimated at $500 million to $1 billion based on typical management fees. Grantham also controls an endowment worth hundreds of millions through the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. His personal investment returns and salary as chief investment strategist contribute additional income. Net worth estimates range from $100 million to $500 million in financial media.[编辑]

格兰瑟姆因在经济分析和慈善事业方面的贡献而被授予大英帝国司令勋章 (CBE)。他于 2011 年入选彭博社《50 位最具影响力人物》榜单。他目前是 CFA 协会系统性风险委员会的成员。[编辑]